La economía China Tambalea, y el mundo es forzado a adaptarse

China Falters, and the Global Economy Is Forced to Adapt

HONG KONG — The commodities giant BHP Billiton spent heavily for years, mining iron ore across Australia, digging for copper in Chile, and pumping oil off the coast of Trinidad. The company could be confident in its direction as commodities orders surged from its biggest and best customer, China.

Now, BHP is pulling back, faced with a slowing Chinese economy that will no longer be the same dominant force in commodities. Profit is falling and the company is cutting its investment spending budget by more than two-thirds.

China’s rapid growth over the last decade reshaped the world economy, creating a powerful driver of corporate strategies, financial markets and geopolitical decisions. China seemed to have a one-way trajectory, momentum that would provide a steady source of profit and capital.

But deepening economic fears about China, which culminated this week in a global market rout, are now forcing a broad rethinking of the conventional wisdom. Even as markets show signs of stabilizing, the resulting shock waves could be lasting, by exposing a new reality that China is no longer a sure bet.

China, while still a large and pervasive presence in the global economy, is now exporting uncertainty around the world with the potential for choppier growth and volatile swings. The tectonic shift is forcing a gut check in industries that have built their strategies and plotted their profits around China’s rise.

Industrial and commodity multinationals face the most pressing concerns, as they scramble to stem the profit slide from weaker consumption. Caterpillar cut back factory production, with industry sales of construction equipment in China dropping by half in the first six months of the year.

Smartphone makers, automobile manufacturers and retailers wonder about the staying power of Chinese buyers, even if it is not shaking their bottom line at this point. General Motors and Ford factories have been shipping fewer cars to Chinese dealerships this summer.

It is not just companies reassessing their assumptions. Russia had been turning to China to fill the financial gap left by low oil prices and Western sanctions. Venezuela, Nigeria and Ukraine have been heavily dependent on investments and low-cost loans from China.

The pain has been particularly acute for Brazil. The country is already faltering, as weaker Chinese imports of minerals and soybeans have jolted all of Latin America. The uncertainty over China could limit the maneuvering room for officials to address the sluggish Brazilian economy at a time when resentment is festering over proposed austerity measures.

The weakness in China is even compelling officials at the United States Federal Reserve to think more globally, as they consider raising interest rates. William C. Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, said on Wednesday that a September rate increase looked less likely than it did a few weeks ago.

“The entire world is focusing now on China, watching this crisis unfold,” Armando Monteiro Neto, Brazil’s minister of development and foreign trade, told reporters on Tuesday in Brasília. “Brazil is already feeling the effects of China’s deceleration. If the situation gets worse, the impact will get bigger.”

The trouble is, the true strength of the Chinese economy — and the policies the leadership will adopt to address any weaknesses — is becoming more difficult to discern.

China’s growth, which the government puts at 7 percent a year, is widely questioned. Large parts of the Chinese service sector, like restaurants and health care, continue to grow, supporting the broader economy. But the signs in industrial sectors, in which other countries and foreign companies have the greatest stake through trade, paint a bleaker picture.

Adding to the worries are recent events like the deadly explosion of a hazardous chemicals warehouse in Tianjin, which has delayed shipments through one of China’s biggest ports. Labor protests, already rising, jumped sharply across coastal China last week over unpaid wages at struggling export factories.

The leadership, concerned with maintaining social stability, has been quick to act, making aggressive moves to prop up the stock market, inject money into the financial system, and generally stimulate the economy. But President Xi Jinping doesn’t have much experience managing a downturn, and some economists worry that the government is making knee-jerk decisions that will do more harm than good.

Many company executives and global economists say that forecasting China’s growth has become so hard that they are hedging their bets for the time being. “This is a complete black art right now,” said Tim Huxley, the chief executive of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, a large Hong Kong shipping company. “I can’t make any long-term decisions based on what is happening today, and so I just keep our fleet running until we get a bit of direction.”

The problems have been building for months in areas like commodities and industrials where just modestly slowing growth in China has been having outsize effects.

For more than a decade, prices surged for iron ore, a main ingredient in making steel, as new skyscrapers, rail lines and other infrastructure were built across China. Last year, BHP Billiton shipped enough iron ore each day to China to fill the Empire State Building.

Now, the industry is retrenching in the face of China’s weaker prospects and diving commodity prices.

Vale, the Brazilian mining giant, is racing to unload assets. In Australia, Vale and its Japanese partner, the Sumitomo Corporation, sold a coal mine in July for just $1, after it had been valued at more than $600 million three years ago. In Argentina, Vale is trying to sell a potash mine in which it invested more than $2 billion.

The fallout in commodities has been especially painful for emerging markets that depend on sales of those resources.

With Brazil’s revenues declining sharply this year, President Dilma Rousseff’s government is coming under criticism over the country’s dependence on China, which surpassed the United States as the top trading partner in 2009. Brazil’s exports to China fell 23.6 percent, to $24.7 billion, in the first seven months of the year from the same period in 2014.

In an editorial on Tuesday, the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo described Brazil’s relationship with China as “semi-colonial,” claiming that the country’s economy “depends in excess on Chinese prosperity.”

Ilan Goldfajn, chief economist at Itaú Unibanco, one of Brazil’s largest banks, said he was already forecasting the economy to contract about 2.3 percent this year, without factoring in the possibility of a hard landing in China. “China is the most important risk factor for Brazil,” Mr. Goldfajn said.

China was supposed to be the financial savior for Russia.

Last year, Russia signed a $400 billion natural gas deal with China. China would help finance a nearly 2,500-mile pipeline to ship fuel from Siberia. Russia trumpeted that it would eventually sell more natural gas to China than Germany, now its biggest customer.

But the prices that China is willing to pay for the gas are dropping so low that it may no longer be worthwhile to build a pipeline. The Russian energy giant Gazprom has cut its planned capital outlays this year for the first leg of the pipeline by half, Dozhd television reported.

“China is an unclear country for us, opaque,” said Aleksandr Abramov, a professor of finance at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow. “We don’t know what to expect,” he said, adding, “Clearly, the situation will worsen in Russia.”

Some of the latest pressures reflect a belated recognition by businesses and politicians that China had been slowing down.

Automobile manufacturers cut their shipments of new cars to dealers by 7 percent in July, compared with a year earlier. Retail sales had not suddenly tanked, said Cui Dongshu, the secretary-general of China’s Passenger Car Association, which represents manufacturers.

Rather, too many cars had been sent to dealers’ lots in previous months, he said. In other words, manufacturers were slow to see the economy’s deceleration and waited too long to throttle back their factories.

“What manufacturers are doing is adjusting inventory levels to the ‘new normal,’ ” said Bill Russo, a former chief executive of Chrysler China, using a favorite phrase of President Xi Jinping of China in recent months to describe an economy that is expanding at a slower pace.

Similar adjustments are taking place around the globe.

For years, Germany has been well positioned to profit from Chinese growth because it specializes in machine tools and other factory equipment. Most important, China acted as a counterweight to the chronically slow-growing markets in Europe.

Now, major German exporters are seeing signs of pressure.

Trumpf says that sales of its signature product, machines that automakers use to cut sheet metal that sell for about 500,000 euros ($566,000) each, have continued to grow in China. But in May and June, sales of less-expensive cutting machines flattened and began to decline. At the bottom of Trumpf’s product line, sales have fallen sharply since November for machines often purchased by start-up companies.

How industries and economies ultimately fare will depend on how long the slowdown and how deep the economic woes.

Demand remains strong at Boeing for its 777-300ER and 787 jets, models that are capable of flights lasting 10 hours or longer, to Europe or North America. Long-haul international travel from mainland China soared nearly 30 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year, Randy Tinseth, the vice president for marketing at Boeing’s commercial aircraft division, said during a visit to Beijing on Tuesday.

So far, it has been mixed for technology players. Timothy D. Cook, the Apple chief executive, said on Monday that business had stayed strong in China in July and August. But Meg Whitman, the chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, said in an earnings call last week that China’s consumer market for printers and computers was “pretty soft,” although demand from businesses was holding up better.

In the end, much of the China story will come down to whether the expectations meet the reality. Andrew Mackenzie, the chief executive of BHP, captured a broader corporate view on Tuesday when he spoke glowingly about China’s potential in the decade to come and predicted continued profitability. But he conceded that the country’s steel production would most likely “grow a little more slowly,” citing a forecast that works out to just 1.4 percent annually — a figure that sounds more like Europe than the formerly go-go economy of China.

A similar realization is taking place in various corners. “We had five fabulous years in China, of course, where we grew strong double-digit, and it has been gradually slowing down,” Frans van Houten, chief executive of Royal Philips, the Dutch conglomerate, said on July 27. “I think, going forward, we need to be much more modest on expectations with regard to China growth: That’s just being realistic.”

Resumen/Abstract

La realidad de lo que sucede hoy en el mercado es que China ya no es una apuesta segura, o al menos eso indican los expertos, quienes hablan de empresas que hace años invertían miles de dolares en explotar recursos y ya estas inversiones millonarias ya no son posibles, por mencionar solo uno de los rubros donde se nota el des aceleramiento de la economía china.

Muchas empresas han crecido y trazado sus estrategias, siempre pensando en el gigante Asiático y su gran empuje económico, pero ahora este país genera múltiples incertidumbres y que ya ha generado unos efectos nefastos en la economía global, e incluso Países como Venezuela, Nigeria y Ucrania han accedido a créditos con bajo interés brindados por China dada su imponencia como economía fuerte con un crecimiento constante y se veía como una jugada "segura".

Hablando de países como tal, uno de los mas afectados ha sido Brasil, quien ha visto como sus exportaciones de recursos naturales hacia el gigante asiático han caído notablemente y esta puede ser una de las causas por las cuales los levantamientos en contra del gobierno y las destapadas de los acto de corrupción en los gobiernos brasileros, los cuales han llevado a marchas multitudinarias en el país carioca. Es tal la dependencia económica de brasil con china, que algunos analistas la llama '"semi colonial", pues el crecimiento de los brasileros depende fuertemente( mas de lo deseado) en la prosperidad de los chinos.

Pero los brasileros no son los únicos, puesto que Rusia también tenían muchas de sus apuestas en el gas que le proveería a china, pero el precio que proponen los chinos hace casi impensable que se lleve a cabo la construcción del gasoducto, Alemania, gran exportador de maquinaria en general, con el auge de la producción china tuvo un crecimiento importante, y comparando las cifras de este año con los años anteriores, las ventas han bajado y se ve como lentamente va cayendo la economía de toda Europa. Incluso los fabricantes de vehículos ven con mucho cuidado las ventas, pues no son lo suficientemente buenas como estaban esperando.

Fuente:http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/27/business/international/china-falters-and-the-global-economy-is-forced-to-adapt.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=a-lede-package-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

Fuente:http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-11/02/content_11487348.htm

Peninsula de Corea

http://elordenmundial.com/geopolitica/conflicto-de-corea/

Debe de tenerse en cuenta la proximidad de la frontera entre ambas coreas con la capital surcoreana Seul, ciudad que puede ser un blanco ´fácil´ y rápido en caso de un invasión de los vecinos del norte.

Las dos Coreas intercambian fuego de artillería en la frontera

La siempre tensa frontera entre las dos Coreas volvió a encenderse este jueves. Ambos ejércitos intercambiaron fuego, en el incidente de este tipo más serio de los últimos 5 años. Después de recibir un proyectil norcoreano lanzado contra uno de sus altavoces de propaganda en la zona occidental de la línea divisoria, Corea del Sur lanzó “decenas” de rondas de artillería de 155 milímetros, ha indicado el Ministerio de Defensa en Seúl. No se han registrado víctimas.

 “Nuestros soldados han incrementado la vigilancia y supervisan muy de cerca los movimientos militares norcoreanos”, indicó el Ministerio. El Consejo de Seguridad Nacional surcoreano tiene previsto reunirse para abordar la situación, según ha informado Yonhap, la agencia de noticias del país. Seúl ha ordenado la evacuación de los residentes en la zona del enfrentamiento, a unos 60 kilómetros al norte de la capital surcoreana.

Por su parte, Corea del Norte ha dado 48 horas a su vecino del sur para poner fin a esas transmisiones, asegura la agencia surcoreana. De lo contrario, Pyongyang ha advertido que emprenderá acciones militares.

Las tensiones entre los dos países en la zona fronteriza habían aumentado desde comienzos de este mes. Dos soldados surcoreanos habían quedado heridos cuando, en una patrulla rutinaria, pisaron una mina. Uno de ellos perdió una pierna y el otro sufrió una doble amputación. El Ministerio de Defensa del país llegó a la conclusión de que se trataba de un artefacto de procedencia norcoreana colocado recientemente, no una reliquia de la guerra que enfrentó a los dos países entre 1950 y 1953 y que técnicamente continúa, detenida solo por un armisticio.

Tras prometer que respondería con firmeza, Seúl comenzó a transmitir propaganda a través de altavoces en la frontera, una práctica de la que los dos países se habían abstenido desde 2004.

El pasado lunes, Pyongyang también comenzó a transmitir sus propias consignas.

El proyectil norcoreano, según Seúl, tenía como objeto uno de los altavoces propagandísticos, aunque no logró alcanzarlo ni se registraron daños de otra naturaleza. El incidente se produjo en un área montañosa cerca de una base militar surcoreana en la ciudad de Yeoncheon.

El intercambio de disparos se produce cuando Corea del Sur y EEUU desarrollan maniobras militares anuales, un ejercicio que el vecino del norte considera como preparativos para la guerra.

La última vez en que ambos países intercambiaron fuego ocurrió en noviembre de 2010, cuando Corea del Norte lanzó proyectiles contra la isla surcoreana de Yeonpyeong. Dos soldados y dos civiles murieron en el ataque. Seúl replicó con rondas de proyectiles sobre posiciones norcoreanas.

Fuente: http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2015/08/20/actualidad/1440070952_976929.html

Resumen/Abstract

La tensa frontera entre corea del norte y corea del sur se reactivó este jueves después de 5 años de calma en donde el ataque proveniente de territorio norcoreano afecto el territorio fronterizo con corea del sur, en donde corea del sur no se quede quieto y respondió con decenas de proyectiles atacando territorio norcoreano.

Estos ataques surgieron gracias a que desde territorio surcoreano se estaban emitiendo grabaciones en contra de las ideologías norcoreanas, las cuales incomodaron altamente a la población norcoreana, por lo cual tomaron la decisión de atacar la frontera tratando de destruir la fuente que emitía estas grabaciones, objetivo que no se cumplió originando que estos le dieran un ultimátum a corea del sur que de no suspender la emisión de estas grabaciones, emprendería con acciones militares en contra del vecino país.

La tensión este esta frontera se ha ido incrementando desde hace alrededor de 1 mes, todo gracias a que unos soldados surcoreanos fueron heridos de gravedad por una mina que se dice fue instalada por la milicia norcoreana, se debe tener en cuenta que los ataques norcoreanos se presentan justo en la época en la cual corea del sur y los Estados Unidos de América realizan sus maniobras militares anuales, mostrando de cierta forma incomodidad con respecto a ellas ya que desde su punto de vista hacen parte de preparativos de guerra. 

Ukraine surge in fighting violates ceasefire - EU

Ukraine surge in fighting violates ceasefire - EU

The European Union says escalating attacks on government-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine violate a February peace deal with pro-Russia separatists.

"The Minsk Agreements must be implemented in good faith, starting with full observation of the ceasefire and genuine withdrawal of heavy weapons," the EU said.

Ukraine on Monday accused rebels of carrying out the heaviest shelling since the truce was agreed.

Russia denies any role in the fighting.

However, Ukraine and the West say there is a growing body of evidence pointing to direct involvement from Moscow.

Rebel leaders have denied firing on Ukrainian positions and accuse government forces of violating the ceasefire themselves some 40 times over a 24-hour period.

Denis Pushilin, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic envoy in Moscow, said the Kiev government had so far failed to fulfil any of the conditions of the Minsk deal.

'Escalation'

Ukraine says pro-Russia forces launched dozens of attacks in a number of locations on Monday and Tuesday.

Some of the worst fighting was near the village of Starohnativka, 50km (31 miles) north of the strategic port of Mariupol.

"The renewed escalation of the conflict raising the number of casualties, as a result of attacks on several government controlled areas today and in the night of 10 August on Starohnativka, violates the spirit and the letter of the Minsk Agreements," the EU's External Action Service said late on Tuesday.

In its statement, the EU condemned an arson attack on Sunday on armoured vehicles belonging to the monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as well as the fact that the monitors had been caught in the crossfire in Shchastya, in Luhansk, and Shyrokyne, near Mariupol.

These incidents "put in danger the crucial role" of OSCE officials in "monitoring and verifying the implementation of the Minsk agreements," it said.

Heightened risk

Meanwhile a London-based think tank released a report on Wednesday warning that an increase in military exercises by Russia and Nato in and around the Baltic states and Poland raised the threat of armed conflict in Europe.

The European Leadership Network (ELN) said that the war exercises fed "uncertainty'' and heightened the risk of "dangerous military encounters".

Relations between Russia and the West have been in crisis since Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine last year.

Around 7,000 people have been killed since the Ukrainian conflict started and more than one million people have been displaced.

The ceasefire agreed in Minsk in February has not brought an end to the conflict, but it has resulted in a lower level of fighting.

There are fears now that the violence could erupt once again into a full-scale war.

Resumen/Abstract

El gobierno Ucraniano dijo que sus fuerzas militares se vieron sometidas a ataques cerca de la ciudad costera de Mariupol.

La unión europea ha dicho que los recientes ataques en áreas controladas en el este por el gobierno Ucraniano violan el tratado de paz hecho con los pro-rusos separatistas.

El pasado Febrero, en el tratado de Minsk,  se firmó un cese al fuego por estas 2 partes. El pasado 10 de agosto el gobierno ucraniano acusó a los rebeldes rusos de ser los responsables de los ataques desde que firmó el tratado. Rusia negó cualquier implicación en estos hechos, pero la población Ucraniana  dicen que varios cosas apuntan a que los ataques fueron directamente dirigidos desde Moscow lo cual los rebeldes se negaron rotundamente y dijeron que el gobierno ucraniano había violado el cese al fuego aproximadamente unas 40 veces en un día.

Las relaciones entre Rusia y el oeste de Ucrania se han visto en crisis desde que Rusia anexó la península de Crimea arrebatándosela a Ucrania. El cese al fuego acordado en Minsk no trajo como consecuencia el fin del conflicto pero resultó en una disminución de hostilidades.

Después del cese al fuego y todo lo que ha sucedió se teme que ese conflicto se reactive en una guerra a gran escala, debido a que en este se han incluido muchas partes. 

Fuente:http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33880342

Alcance de los misiles Iraníes.

http://www.standupamericaus.org/world-events/us-troops-deployed-to-israel/

US and Russia offer support to Gulf Arab states

The US and Russia have offered their support to Gulf Arab states as the region tries to come to terms with the escalating conflict in Syria, the threat from armed groups and the fallout of the nuclear deal with Iran.

John Kerry, US secretary of state, and Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, spoke at the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) summit in Qatar's capital Doha on Monday after a busy diplomatic schedule.

The GCC groups Qatar with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Kerry said, after meeting GCC foreign ministers, that he and they agreed that once fully implemented, the accord would contribute to the region's security.

Head to Head: Who is to blame for the rise of ISIL?

However, in apparent acknowledgement of Gulf fears that the regional balance of power may be tilting towards Iran, Kerry said the discussions also covered their "cooperation in countering the destabilising activities taking place in the region".

Kerry said the nuclear deal might or might not have an effect on Iran's behaviour but that the US and its allies must plan for the eventuality that it would not.

He also promised more weapons, more intelligence-sharing and army training for the predominantly Sunni Muslim Gulf Arab states.

A ballistic missile defence capability, expediting arms transfers, special forces training, maritime and cyber security programmes and a significant boost in intelligence sharing were discussed, Kerry said.

Working groups on those issues will begin meeting next week in Saudi Arabia, he said.

Khalid Al Attiyah, Qatari foreign minister, said Gulf Arab states were confident that agreement between Iran and the world powers made the Gulf region safer.

While diplomatic efforts intensify, Syrian refugees in Jordan suffer from food-support cuts

Most Gulf Arab states worry that Iran's July 14 accord with the US and other big powers will usher in detente between the two countries and embolden Iran to support Shia Muslim paramilitary allies in the region.

Last month, six world powers agreed to lift sanctions on Iran in return for curbs on its uranium enrichment programme.

The US and its allies suspect the programme is aimed at developing an atomic bomb, although Iran says it is for peaceful energy only.

In a later joint news conference with Al Attiyah, Lavrov mainly made remarks on the Syrian crisis, saying that any US military strikes in Syria that hit the army would complicate counterterrorism efforts there.

Lavrov, whose country is an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, said a settlement to Syria's war needed dialogue between all parties.

However, he said the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group was the main danger in Syria and neighbouring Iraq and that was why Russia supported the governments of both countries.

Opinion: Panic in Damascus?

Russia has been trying to bring about rapprochement between the Syrian government and regional states, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to forge an alliance to fight ISIL.

Al Jazeera's Hashem Ahelbarra, reporting from Doha, said: "This is quite a delicate moment for the Gulf countries.

"They are worried that Iran might finally be able to foster ties with the West, get sanctions lifted and pursue an active role in the region."He said there are concerns that Iran continues to back the Syrian government and the Houthi fighters in Yemen.

Fuente:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/08/russia-offer-support-gulf-arab-states-150803184224296.html

Resumen/Abstract

Estados unidos y Rusia mostraron el apoyo a los estados árabes que se encuentran en el golfo, principalmente por el conflicto en Siria, y el acuerdo nuclear con Irán.

Representantes de los estados del golfo y de estados unidos y Rusia, se reunieron en Doha para discutir sobre la agenda diplomática de la región, entre los países son Qatar, Bahréin, Omán, Arabia Saudí y los emiratos árabes unidos.

La principal idea es debatir los temas de seguridad de la región, para contribuir en este tema, ya que algunos de estos países empiezan a mostrar preocupación por el poder que pueda tener Irán ahora que se levantaron las sanciones con el tema nuclear Iraní, aunque según comento el secretario de estado norteamericano, esperan que no se presenten inconvenientes entre Iraníes y sus vecinos, pero aun así, prometió armas y apoyo en inteligencia para los gobiernos del golfo, entre los que se encuentran, defensa balística antimisiles, transferencia de armas, entrenamiento de fuerzas especiales, además de programas de ciber seguridad con lo cual esperan hacer una región más segura.

Los estados del golfo, mostraron su preocupación en la reunión diplomática, pues creen que las últimas acciones pueden darle pie a Irán para apoyar a los musulmanes chiitas y aliados paramilitares presentes en la región.

Así también, el diplomático Ruso considero que el estado islámico es el principal peligro en Siria e Irak, y que por esa razón Rusia apoyaba a los gobiernos involucrados, entre los cuales se encuentran el gobierno turco y arabia saudita con los cuales está intentando formar una alianza contra el EI.